Who's surging with two weeks to go? Ron Paul

Iowa caucuses, the first official contest in the GOP primary calendar, take place on January 3rd this year. That means we're two weeks away from the eve of Iowa, and the polls and ground game are pointing toward an unexpected winner: Ron Paul. Fivethirtyeight now gives him better than 50% odds.

Now if you've been reading this blog, you'd already know that a Ron Paul victory in Iowa has been a distinct possibility for weeks, but we now have the first polling which suggests a veritable surge for Paul, not just in Iowa, but across the country.

This is the average of polls released two weeks ago for Ron Paul, Gingrich, and Romney:
Gingrich: 31%, Romney: 18%, Paul: 16%

This is the average of polls released last week:
Gingrich: 23%, Romney: 17%, Paul: 19%

And here is the average of the polls released so far this week:
Gingrich: 14%, Romney: 19%, Paul: 24%

The trend is obvious. Paul, capitalizing on the Cain supporters who came to his camp, seems to have capitalized further on the 5-candidate attack on Gingrich that has weakened Gingrich's position over the last couple of weeks. His strategy of also attacking the former Speaker may be paying off, after running his spot regularly in Iowa and New Hampshire for the last couple weeks.

As I pointed out in my previous post, this attack strategy is dangerous, because it invites a response and may hurt Ron Paul's favorability (voters generally don't like a negative campaign). But I also noted then that Ron Paul may be safe as long as he is still seen as somewhat of a joke to the larger GOP, and if his national polling stays weak. If a front-runner were to attack Ron Paul, s/he would only elevate Ron Paul to the position of 'worthy opponent', something the candidates have so far avoided. As a result, Ron Paul has been left relatively unscathed by the primary process, while the others fight amongst themselves.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) for Ron Paul, his polling numbers are on the rise outside of Iowa: a New Hampshire poll out today shows him in second place, and several national polls now put him in the low double digits. These national numbers are significant because Paul has so far been unable to win more than about 9% of the national electorate to his cause. These numbers also mean that the other candidates can no longer afford to laugh off Paul and that could be bad news for the Texas congressman. They may now have no other choice but to attack Ron Paul, since he is becoming an inarguable front runner, positioned to win the first GOP primary contest.

The good news for the Paul campaign is that there's virtually no time for the other candidates to outmaneuver Paul's current position. People aren't usually paying much attention to politics during the holidays and there are no more debates left between now and the caucuses. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry are probably the only candidates with the monetary resources to beat Paul, and Romney at least is more likely to pin his hopes on a New Hampshire win than to make a large ad buy in Iowa. Perry might try an attack on Paul; he desperately needs a good showing in IA; so might Bachmann, although she isn't rolling in money. Overall, a last minute attack ad is not out of the question, but seems unlikely. On the other hand, we have desperate campaigns shaping up here, with several candidates relying on Iowa for a break out win. A dirty mailer or robocall attack may emerge.

Setting all speculation aside, these Iowa numbers are undeniably good news for Ron Paul. And his increasing traction with the national electorate suggests that he may be surging at just the right time. Better polling across the board also points to the possibility that Paul will be able to sustain his position even after Iowa and New Hampshire, and compete long term-- he just finished raising 4 million in a money bomb over the weekend, so he'll have the funds to compete.

So the final question is, will he hold on to these good numbers, or even see them increase? He probably has a good chance of staying where he is. We will have to see whether the other candidates react with a Paul pile-on, but I am skeptical either way that Ron Paul will see much more of a boost than he already has. Not only is Paul a divisive figure, what with his 'wacky' and 'off the rails' foreign policy perspectives, but no candidate has been able to secure more than a third of the vote in Iowa so far, mainly because the field is just too crowded. It would be a downright shocking achievement if Paul ended up with much more than a third of the vote. But even 25% is enough to win, with all the other candidates splitting the rest.

After that, it's hard to say. His numbers are still pretty weak nationally, even though they are on the rise. Will a win in Iowa give a boost to that support?

I should note here that we should all be careful not to underestimate Ron Paul. He is an unusual candidate with an unequaled ground game in Iowa and a base enthusiasm that is also unmatched amongst the candidates. If he does win Iowa, it'll be because of these supporters and volunteers; and with them, Paul really may have just enough of a foundation to make a real play for the nomination.