Shakeup in Alaska?

I keep mentioning three way races in my posts, and it's because they're just so fascinating this cycle.

The one race that I have pretty much ignored in my Senate forecasts is Alaska, except to mention that it represents an unprecedented historical situation because Lisa Murkowski is trying to win as a write-in candidate. Write-in candidates just simply don't win historically, so much that many politicians wouldn't even try, as embarrassing as it would be. 

But Murkowski represents a real possibility for the write-in candidacy, as she has consistently been polling right up next to Joe Miller, the Republican.

And yet I have been ignoring Alaska in my forecasts because it has, until recently, seemed almost certain that either Murkowski or Miller would win, and both candidates are running as Republicans.


Ok. It's really really dangerous to try to make an argument off of a single poll, particularly when its a weekend poll, but because the argument I am about to make has been around for awhile, I'll draw your attention to a PPP poll of the Alaska Senate election. PPP makes the assertion with this poll that, instead of McAdams, the Democrat, being the spoiler for Murkowski, Murkowski may end up being the spoiler for McAdams. Three way races are hard to predict, and three-way races in which there is a write-in candidate don't have a lot of precedent. Joe Miller AND Lisa Murkowski both have dismal approval ratings in the 30s, while McAdams is approved of by 50%. Will Murkowski voters, encountering the difficulty of writing in her name (which is not the easiest to spell) cast their ballots for McAdams, if they can't figure out the write-in process? There is a good argument that this could be the case.

With this poll showing Miller at 37% and McAdams at 30%, it's certainly Miller's race to lose, but there really may be movement at the last moment here in Alaska, with counting of write-ins going well into this week. Can't wait to find out if McAdams or Murkowski will be the exciting upset of this election.