The tactical movement that I was talking about in last night's post seems to have arrived. Gingrich's entreaties to the electorate appear to have been successful and voters are now tactically coalescing around his candidacy to defeat Mitt Romney. Or maybe they love him now.
A couple events occurred today that have changed the conventional wisdom regarding the SC primary. First, Rick Perry has dropped out of the race, endorsing Newt Gingrich. While this might not seem to directly help Gingrich's campaign (Perry wasn't commanding much support anyway), it does deliver a blow to Santorum's floundering candidacy, as he struggles for legitimacy against Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Second, in several polls released today, Gingrich's support has jumped 10 points, exactly the margin of Romney's former polling lead. That ties him with Romney and brings the momentum solidly into his camp.
This is similar to what we saw in both Iowa and New Hampshire, with the final week to the vote showing a sudden rise in support for one specific candidate. In New Hampshire, that was Jon Huntsman, although his solid third place finish wasn't enough to keep his campaign going. In Iowa, however, voters seemed to be behaving tactically, rallying around the one conservative alternative to Mitt Romney-- they picked Santorum while Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry saw their chances weaken significantly.
Like in Iowa, the Gingrich rise in SC has corresponded to a drop in polling for the other 'mainstream' candidates- this time, Santorum and Perry and Romney- rather than a sudden disappearance of undecided/other voters. I won't include Ron Paul because his numbers were relatively steady in Iowa and now in SC as well. Let's take a look at the others.
Rounded average of 5 polls released Monday-Wednesday according to RCP:
Romney: 34%, Gingrich: 22%, Santorum: 15%, Perry: 5%, Undecided: 10%
Rounded average of 4 polls released today:
Romney: 31%, Gingrich: 32%, Santorum: 12%, Perry: 4% Undecided: 8%
Needless to say, if this trend continues in the next two days, and if undecideds break for Gingrich rather than Romney, Gingrich will probably win the upcoming Saturday primary, especially if Perry voters turn to Gingrich. However, if undecideds break for Romney, Gingrich's momentum probably isn't enough. A lot may hinge on the debate tonight, which will focus on the last four candidates standing. Much attention will be concentrated on Gingrich's sudden rise; the other candidates will probably be desperate to bring Gingrich down, so the attacks may focus away from Romney. If Gingrich can hold his own, there are a lot of ads on the SC airwaves tearing Romney down, mainly from his Super PAC,
Overall, this is great news for Gingrich. We'll see if he can hold, or improve on his position in the next two days. Either way it looks like he'll do well enough, even if Romney wins by a slim margin, to continue on past SC. Santorum maybe not so much. Ron Paul should also be celebrating this development. His numbers are still impressive relative to what they have been in SC, and a three-person race is one that will probably elevate his profile by lowering the winning threshold in upcoming states. Moreover, some states have a winner take all delegate process, but only if one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, otherwise it's proportional. A three way split would allow Paul to rack up more delegates while holding out for a chance for a brokered convention, where he could really exercise his clout.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
It's Gingrich or Romney... but can it be both?
The upcoming South Carolina Primary is ultimately down to two candidates, reflecting the national race: Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
After an expectedly strong New Hampshire win, Mitt Romney has capitalized on his triumph by blazing into South Carolina with wind at his back, hoping to finish off his remaining opponents quickly. Since then, Romney has been sitting on a 10 point lead in the state as his four opponents divy up the remaining vote. It is still looking likely that Mitt Romney will pull out a win in South Carolina, but there is one opponent who I have consistently said will provide the strongest opposition to Romney in SC: Newt Gingrich.
Being a Southerner from neighboring Georgia, Gingrich has always had a reasonably strong regional sway in SC, brought to fruition during his surge in November. Since that time, Gingrich's numbers have slipped, making way for a modest post-Iowa Santorum jump and giving enough of a boost to Romney to push him solidly into the lead. Still, Gingrich's position is the most formidable of Romney's potential adversaries in this primary, and this offers him the best chance of an upset Saturday night.
In a recent post, I pointed out that wise, conservative anti-Romney voters should consolidate around Gingrich. It's easy to see why: Rick Perry continues to baffle by remaining in the race despite relentlessly tepid support, and Rick Santorum, despite winning the support of a gathering of evangelical leaders over the weekend... also maybe sort-of kind-of didn't? Either way, Santorum probably won't see a major bounce from a divided endorsement (although we shall soon see), and probably isn't quite the right fit for SC voters, having been a Senator from Pennsylvania and voting against a 'Right to Work' law, a potentially contentious issue in SC (among other issues for which he is being attacked). Ron Paul's libertarianism probably isn't going to play well in the critical Bible Belt region in SC either, and will be fighting with Santorum for 3rd or 4th place. Meanwhile, Gingrich's most recent debate performance has been lauded, and may even be giving him some momentum in the state. All this combines to entice some South Carolina GOP voters to behave tactically to defeat Romney (even if they prefer another candidate, a voter might rather have Gingrich than Romney)- if that were to happen it might give Gingrich a last minute boost like Santorum received in Iowa. It certainly doesn't hurt that Sarah Palin has asked SC voters to tactically vote for Gingrich. Polls are not yet reflecting such a tactical decision by voters, however, and now's the time when Gingrich would need to be seeing movement.
So now we return to the question I posed in the title of this post. Romney's still the strong favorite in South Carolina, so if he wins, even with a solid second place Gingrich showing, what happens next?
Well we know that Ron Paul is in it for the long haul no matter how he places; his campaign has been setting up infrastructure in states far beyond SC, and the candidate himself has been campaigning in Nevada before the SC primary. Santorum is counting on a very strong showing in South Carolina but it's hard to know how much further his campaign can go with a 3rd or 4th place finish. Then again, it has been surprising that Rick Perry has still remained in the race- though I'd guess the odds are good that he'll decide to throw in the towel in the next week... I think.
Gingrich has said to news media that South Carolina is a must win state for him, so if he doesn't win, will he drop out? Can Romney and Gingrich carry their battle on into the other upcoming states, or has Gingrich bet all his campaign resources in SC? Seeing as how there are good odds that one or more other candidates will drop out after SC, will that change Gingrich's calculus? Certainly if Romney loses he will continue on, but it will be interesting to watch what the Gingrich campaign does if their candidate places second. The critical question they'll be asking: is there a path forward from here? Romney's lead in Florida is probably insurmountable if he wins in South Carolina, so in that case can Gingrich play in Nevada and beyond? The answer, I think, is yes, as long as it is a neck and neck SC finish and/or Perry and Santorum drop out. If not, it's hard to say.
Of course, a scenario is possible in which every candidate but Ron Paul and Mitt Romney drops out after South Carolina. That would also seriously change the dynamic of the race.
I won't attempt to answer these questions because I don't have information on campaign finance and infrastructure at my fingertips, but I can say this: the key to the importance of the SC GOP primary lies in how well Newt Gingrich can do as those returns come in Saturday night.
After an expectedly strong New Hampshire win, Mitt Romney has capitalized on his triumph by blazing into South Carolina with wind at his back, hoping to finish off his remaining opponents quickly. Since then, Romney has been sitting on a 10 point lead in the state as his four opponents divy up the remaining vote. It is still looking likely that Mitt Romney will pull out a win in South Carolina, but there is one opponent who I have consistently said will provide the strongest opposition to Romney in SC: Newt Gingrich.
Being a Southerner from neighboring Georgia, Gingrich has always had a reasonably strong regional sway in SC, brought to fruition during his surge in November. Since that time, Gingrich's numbers have slipped, making way for a modest post-Iowa Santorum jump and giving enough of a boost to Romney to push him solidly into the lead. Still, Gingrich's position is the most formidable of Romney's potential adversaries in this primary, and this offers him the best chance of an upset Saturday night.
In a recent post, I pointed out that wise, conservative anti-Romney voters should consolidate around Gingrich. It's easy to see why: Rick Perry continues to baffle by remaining in the race despite relentlessly tepid support, and Rick Santorum, despite winning the support of a gathering of evangelical leaders over the weekend... also maybe sort-of kind-of didn't? Either way, Santorum probably won't see a major bounce from a divided endorsement (although we shall soon see), and probably isn't quite the right fit for SC voters, having been a Senator from Pennsylvania and voting against a 'Right to Work' law, a potentially contentious issue in SC (among other issues for which he is being attacked). Ron Paul's libertarianism probably isn't going to play well in the critical Bible Belt region in SC either, and will be fighting with Santorum for 3rd or 4th place. Meanwhile, Gingrich's most recent debate performance has been lauded, and may even be giving him some momentum in the state. All this combines to entice some South Carolina GOP voters to behave tactically to defeat Romney (even if they prefer another candidate, a voter might rather have Gingrich than Romney)- if that were to happen it might give Gingrich a last minute boost like Santorum received in Iowa. It certainly doesn't hurt that Sarah Palin has asked SC voters to tactically vote for Gingrich. Polls are not yet reflecting such a tactical decision by voters, however, and now's the time when Gingrich would need to be seeing movement.
So now we return to the question I posed in the title of this post. Romney's still the strong favorite in South Carolina, so if he wins, even with a solid second place Gingrich showing, what happens next?
Well we know that Ron Paul is in it for the long haul no matter how he places; his campaign has been setting up infrastructure in states far beyond SC, and the candidate himself has been campaigning in Nevada before the SC primary. Santorum is counting on a very strong showing in South Carolina but it's hard to know how much further his campaign can go with a 3rd or 4th place finish. Then again, it has been surprising that Rick Perry has still remained in the race- though I'd guess the odds are good that he'll decide to throw in the towel in the next week... I think.
Gingrich has said to news media that South Carolina is a must win state for him, so if he doesn't win, will he drop out? Can Romney and Gingrich carry their battle on into the other upcoming states, or has Gingrich bet all his campaign resources in SC? Seeing as how there are good odds that one or more other candidates will drop out after SC, will that change Gingrich's calculus? Certainly if Romney loses he will continue on, but it will be interesting to watch what the Gingrich campaign does if their candidate places second. The critical question they'll be asking: is there a path forward from here? Romney's lead in Florida is probably insurmountable if he wins in South Carolina, so in that case can Gingrich play in Nevada and beyond? The answer, I think, is yes, as long as it is a neck and neck SC finish and/or Perry and Santorum drop out. If not, it's hard to say.
Of course, a scenario is possible in which every candidate but Ron Paul and Mitt Romney drops out after South Carolina. That would also seriously change the dynamic of the race.
I won't attempt to answer these questions because I don't have information on campaign finance and infrastructure at my fingertips, but I can say this: the key to the importance of the SC GOP primary lies in how well Newt Gingrich can do as those returns come in Saturday night.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Watch for a Huntsman surprise in NH
In my post yesterday I discussed Jon Huntsman's New Hampshire prospects with positive coverage, suggesting that he was most likely to achieve a third place finish in the Granite State. As polls and commentators are suggesting, Huntsman has the momentum in New Hampshire and this could result in a surprise finish in that state. As I pointed out yesterday, a victory of 15% or more would probably constitute a surprise finish in the eyes of the news media since Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich had been seen as running neck and neck with Huntsman.
But with some last minute polls (like this one) now showing Huntsman in the mid to high teens, he has a real chance at a spectacular finish: this would mean beating Ron Paul for second place in New Hampshire or coming close to it. Now I won't get too far into the odds between Paul and Huntsman, since I have been bullish regarding both of their campaigns in NH, but even now the most likely outcome in my opinion still would show Huntsman behind Paul. But these things, of course, are very hard to predict.
I think that both Paul's and Huntsman's campaigns could beat expectations in the contest tomorrow, but I'd guess that Huntsman very likely will. Remember, Huntsman needs at least a strong third place finish (15% or better) to have any significant chance of shaking up the race. Even if he does significantly better than this benchmark (which I think will happen), it's no guarantee that he will be able to play in South Carolina. Florida, the next state to vote, is a better option for Huntsman, particularly if he can split the vote with Paul and Gingrich who is also doing well there.
For this to Florida environment to happen, Gingrich probably needs to beat Santorum in NH and finish 1st or 2nd in SC. I think the chances of this scenario occurring are a little better than a coin flip, since I have repeatedly discussed my skepiticism regarding Santorum's chances in NH and SC. However, I'm not confident enough of that outcome to make any prediction; Santorum is showing more robustness than I expected so far- we'll just have to watch what happens.
This is certainly an exciting time for the Huntsman campaign. When the votes are counted tomorrow night, you'll know not to be too surprised by a Huntsman surprise.
But with some last minute polls (like this one) now showing Huntsman in the mid to high teens, he has a real chance at a spectacular finish: this would mean beating Ron Paul for second place in New Hampshire or coming close to it. Now I won't get too far into the odds between Paul and Huntsman, since I have been bullish regarding both of their campaigns in NH, but even now the most likely outcome in my opinion still would show Huntsman behind Paul. But these things, of course, are very hard to predict.
I think that both Paul's and Huntsman's campaigns could beat expectations in the contest tomorrow, but I'd guess that Huntsman very likely will. Remember, Huntsman needs at least a strong third place finish (15% or better) to have any significant chance of shaking up the race. Even if he does significantly better than this benchmark (which I think will happen), it's no guarantee that he will be able to play in South Carolina. Florida, the next state to vote, is a better option for Huntsman, particularly if he can split the vote with Paul and Gingrich who is also doing well there.
For this to Florida environment to happen, Gingrich probably needs to beat Santorum in NH and finish 1st or 2nd in SC. I think the chances of this scenario occurring are a little better than a coin flip, since I have repeatedly discussed my skepiticism regarding Santorum's chances in NH and SC. However, I'm not confident enough of that outcome to make any prediction; Santorum is showing more robustness than I expected so far- we'll just have to watch what happens.
This is certainly an exciting time for the Huntsman campaign. When the votes are counted tomorrow night, you'll know not to be too surprised by a Huntsman surprise.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
The value of New Hampshire
With Rick Perry and Mitt Romney making no secret of neatly skipping down to South Carolina to campaign during the one week between the Iowa and NH caucuses, it's worth questioning the true value of the New Hampshire primary for the candidates still in the game.
Michele Bachmann is out of the race; a smart choice after a disappointing finish in Iowa. Rick Perry is polling at 1% in NH; so there is no value in campaigning in NH for Perry. Romney, meanwhile, is sporting a 20+ point lead in New Hampshire, and has been in South Carolina trying to lock up the nomination with three victories in a row.
So for whom does New Hampshire matter? Time to bring in our three "must watch" candidates from my analysis of the race over a month ago.
Ron Paul is almost certainly going to get second place in New Hampshire, behind Mitt Romney. His views are a natural fit for New Hampshire and he has been very slowly gaining traction. He sits at around 20% in the polls. The stakes are high for him for two reasons. 1) Paul is unlikely to do this well in any other state. The specifics of the Iowa and New Hampshire electorate have offered Paul his best opportunity to get better than 20% of the vote outside of the Mountain West. Paul got 21% of the vote in Iowa; he must perform even better than that in NH in order to elevate his profile and surprise the pundits. 2) The closer he can come to Romney, the more potential upside there is to NH; the further away he is, the more the pundits will be focusing on who they see as the real contenders (everyone else). If Romney retains his 20 point lead, the conventional thinking on Paul's national viability (specifically, his lack thereof) will not be questioned, but if Paul somehow manages to close the gap with Romney in a meaningful way, he could begin to change the debate.
Unfortunately, Paul is making what seems to me to be a terrible mistake in his campaign strategy. Besides Romney, Paul is the only candidate with the national infrastructure and national funding to fight a prolonged battle for the nomination. As I have mentioned in previous posts, my opinion is that Paul's best chance at having influence (or even being nominated) at the convention is to enter a brokered convention with as many delegates as possible. To do that, he needs more than a 2-man race. Against Romney, Paul doesn't really have a chance with the GOP electorate at large; his views are just too out of step to ever manage a majority. His best bet is to try to allow as many non-Romney candidates to survive for as long as possible, since the other candidates are unlikely to cut into Paul's specific category of libertarian support. Therefore, his main opponent and focus of all attacks should be his most dangerous adversary: Romney.
But for some reason, Paul's strategy has been to break down every candidate except Romney. He's gone after Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in TV ads, and spent yesterday night's debate squabbling with Rick Santorum over which one of them was the true conservative. Mitt Romney, sitting back and watching his weaker rivals fight with one another, merely sat back and put on his "oh, children, please do calm down" face. If Ron Paul was a more conventional candidate with a wider base of support like Newt Gingrich, this strategy would be very wise, but he's not. Perhaps his campaign truly believes that a Romney vs Paul debate would be great for the country and could rally the anti-Romney vote to Ron Paul. Or perhaps Paul is behaving passionately rather than tactically- that wouldn't be surprising for someone like Paul. Or perhaps again, I could be really underestimating Paul's GOP appeal. Either way, as I see it right now, Romney couldn't have asked for a better environment from his best funded and organized opponent.
For Rick Santorum, the stakes are obvious. He got a great boost coming out of an essential tie with Romney in Iowa; his numbers in NH immediately shot up to around 10%. He will be jockeying for third place with Huntsman and Gingrich. There's two major factors to watch with Santorum. 1) His overall position: ideally third place to acquire adequate momentum moving into SC. If he does manage third place, it will still give him a great media boost, since it will still represent a great showing relative to expectations. 2) His position relative to Gingrich. Gingrich and Santorum are fighting for viability in New Hampshire. If Gingrich does better than Santorum, something I had expected only a week ago but now is unclear, Gingrich can make the case that he's the best anti-Romney candidate. Santorum, therefore, must do as well as or better than Gingrich to prove that he can be a serious contender.
And finally, Jon Huntsman. Huntsman has staked his whole nomination battle on New Hampshire, and in my opinion he needs a third place finish there to have a chance at battling on the national stage. Even with a third place win, it'd take something big happening to offer Huntsman a chance at winning the nomination. For example, if Gingrich dropped out after NH and endorsed Huntsman, that might shake up the battle enough to give Huntsman a solid chance. The chances of a game changer for Huntsman are not good, but it's obviously enough to keep him in the race so far. Anyway, if I had to guess, I'd say that Huntsman has the best chance at a third place finish in NH (he has a great ideological structure for the NH independent electorate)- if he can mange to surprise with 15% of the vote or more, his position would look even better.
For my part, I'll be rooting for Huntsman. I think he has the best resume of all of the contenders and reasonable positions, but also hope to justify my mentionings of him on this blog.
A final note on Newt Gingrich. I think conservatives would be wise to put their support behind him rather than Santorum, since I believe that his national viability is still better than Santorum's is. I also think Gingrich can play better overall in S.C. and Florida than Santorum. Both of them have some mess in their records, and we have yet to see how the digging in Santorum's past will play out, so Santorum is also the more potentially risky candidate. But whoever anti-Romney voters choose, they'd better be careful: Romney is just a few weeks away from closing this thing down if conservatives can't make up their mind. Of course, that's exactly what Romney's hoping for. He's run an appropriately cautious, hard hitting, and smart campaign... and apparently to the victor goes the spoils.
But it's not quite time for that yet. New Hampshire still has great value in understanding where things will go next, so we'll just have to wait and see what the voters tell us on Tuesday. And if you live in New Hampshire and are registered for it, make sure to vote!
Michele Bachmann is out of the race; a smart choice after a disappointing finish in Iowa. Rick Perry is polling at 1% in NH; so there is no value in campaigning in NH for Perry. Romney, meanwhile, is sporting a 20+ point lead in New Hampshire, and has been in South Carolina trying to lock up the nomination with three victories in a row.
So for whom does New Hampshire matter? Time to bring in our three "must watch" candidates from my analysis of the race over a month ago.
Ron Paul is almost certainly going to get second place in New Hampshire, behind Mitt Romney. His views are a natural fit for New Hampshire and he has been very slowly gaining traction. He sits at around 20% in the polls. The stakes are high for him for two reasons. 1) Paul is unlikely to do this well in any other state. The specifics of the Iowa and New Hampshire electorate have offered Paul his best opportunity to get better than 20% of the vote outside of the Mountain West. Paul got 21% of the vote in Iowa; he must perform even better than that in NH in order to elevate his profile and surprise the pundits. 2) The closer he can come to Romney, the more potential upside there is to NH; the further away he is, the more the pundits will be focusing on who they see as the real contenders (everyone else). If Romney retains his 20 point lead, the conventional thinking on Paul's national viability (specifically, his lack thereof) will not be questioned, but if Paul somehow manages to close the gap with Romney in a meaningful way, he could begin to change the debate.
Unfortunately, Paul is making what seems to me to be a terrible mistake in his campaign strategy. Besides Romney, Paul is the only candidate with the national infrastructure and national funding to fight a prolonged battle for the nomination. As I have mentioned in previous posts, my opinion is that Paul's best chance at having influence (or even being nominated) at the convention is to enter a brokered convention with as many delegates as possible. To do that, he needs more than a 2-man race. Against Romney, Paul doesn't really have a chance with the GOP electorate at large; his views are just too out of step to ever manage a majority. His best bet is to try to allow as many non-Romney candidates to survive for as long as possible, since the other candidates are unlikely to cut into Paul's specific category of libertarian support. Therefore, his main opponent and focus of all attacks should be his most dangerous adversary: Romney.
But for some reason, Paul's strategy has been to break down every candidate except Romney. He's gone after Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in TV ads, and spent yesterday night's debate squabbling with Rick Santorum over which one of them was the true conservative. Mitt Romney, sitting back and watching his weaker rivals fight with one another, merely sat back and put on his "oh, children, please do calm down" face. If Ron Paul was a more conventional candidate with a wider base of support like Newt Gingrich, this strategy would be very wise, but he's not. Perhaps his campaign truly believes that a Romney vs Paul debate would be great for the country and could rally the anti-Romney vote to Ron Paul. Or perhaps Paul is behaving passionately rather than tactically- that wouldn't be surprising for someone like Paul. Or perhaps again, I could be really underestimating Paul's GOP appeal. Either way, as I see it right now, Romney couldn't have asked for a better environment from his best funded and organized opponent.
For Rick Santorum, the stakes are obvious. He got a great boost coming out of an essential tie with Romney in Iowa; his numbers in NH immediately shot up to around 10%. He will be jockeying for third place with Huntsman and Gingrich. There's two major factors to watch with Santorum. 1) His overall position: ideally third place to acquire adequate momentum moving into SC. If he does manage third place, it will still give him a great media boost, since it will still represent a great showing relative to expectations. 2) His position relative to Gingrich. Gingrich and Santorum are fighting for viability in New Hampshire. If Gingrich does better than Santorum, something I had expected only a week ago but now is unclear, Gingrich can make the case that he's the best anti-Romney candidate. Santorum, therefore, must do as well as or better than Gingrich to prove that he can be a serious contender.
And finally, Jon Huntsman. Huntsman has staked his whole nomination battle on New Hampshire, and in my opinion he needs a third place finish there to have a chance at battling on the national stage. Even with a third place win, it'd take something big happening to offer Huntsman a chance at winning the nomination. For example, if Gingrich dropped out after NH and endorsed Huntsman, that might shake up the battle enough to give Huntsman a solid chance. The chances of a game changer for Huntsman are not good, but it's obviously enough to keep him in the race so far. Anyway, if I had to guess, I'd say that Huntsman has the best chance at a third place finish in NH (he has a great ideological structure for the NH independent electorate)- if he can mange to surprise with 15% of the vote or more, his position would look even better.
For my part, I'll be rooting for Huntsman. I think he has the best resume of all of the contenders and reasonable positions, but also hope to justify my mentionings of him on this blog.
A final note on Newt Gingrich. I think conservatives would be wise to put their support behind him rather than Santorum, since I believe that his national viability is still better than Santorum's is. I also think Gingrich can play better overall in S.C. and Florida than Santorum. Both of them have some mess in their records, and we have yet to see how the digging in Santorum's past will play out, so Santorum is also the more potentially risky candidate. But whoever anti-Romney voters choose, they'd better be careful: Romney is just a few weeks away from closing this thing down if conservatives can't make up their mind. Of course, that's exactly what Romney's hoping for. He's run an appropriately cautious, hard hitting, and smart campaign... and apparently to the victor goes the spoils.
But it's not quite time for that yet. New Hampshire still has great value in understanding where things will go next, so we'll just have to wait and see what the voters tell us on Tuesday. And if you live in New Hampshire and are registered for it, make sure to vote!
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