It's Gingrich or Romney... but can it be both?

The upcoming South Carolina Primary is ultimately down to two candidates, reflecting the national race: Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.

After an expectedly strong New Hampshire win, Mitt Romney has capitalized on his triumph by blazing into South Carolina with wind at his back, hoping to finish off his remaining opponents quickly. Since then, Romney has been sitting on a 10 point lead in the state as his four opponents divy up the remaining vote. It is still looking likely that Mitt Romney will pull out a win in South Carolina, but there is one opponent who I have consistently said will provide the strongest opposition to Romney in SC: Newt Gingrich.

Being a Southerner from neighboring Georgia, Gingrich has always had a reasonably strong regional sway in SC, brought to fruition during his surge in November. Since that time, Gingrich's numbers have slipped, making way for a modest post-Iowa Santorum jump and giving enough of a boost to Romney to push him solidly into the lead. Still, Gingrich's position is the most formidable of Romney's potential adversaries in this primary, and this offers him the best chance of an upset Saturday night.

In a recent post, I pointed out that wise, conservative anti-Romney voters should consolidate around Gingrich. It's easy to see why: Rick Perry continues to baffle by remaining in the race despite relentlessly tepid support, and Rick Santorum, despite winning the support of a gathering of evangelical leaders over the weekend... also maybe sort-of kind-of didn't? Either way, Santorum probably won't see a major bounce from a divided endorsement (although we shall soon see), and probably isn't quite the right fit for SC voters, having been a Senator from Pennsylvania and voting against a 'Right to Work' law, a potentially contentious issue in SC (among other issues for which he is being attacked). Ron Paul's libertarianism probably isn't going to play well in the critical Bible Belt region in SC either, and will be fighting with Santorum for 3rd or 4th place. Meanwhile, Gingrich's most recent debate performance has been lauded, and may even be giving him some momentum in the state. All this combines to entice some South Carolina GOP voters to behave tactically to defeat Romney (even if they prefer another candidate, a voter might rather have Gingrich than Romney)- if that were to happen it might give Gingrich a last minute boost like Santorum received in Iowa. It certainly doesn't hurt that Sarah Palin has asked SC voters to tactically vote for Gingrich. Polls are not yet reflecting such a tactical decision by voters, however, and now's the time when Gingrich would need to be seeing movement.


So now we return to the question I posed in the title of this post. Romney's still the strong favorite in South Carolina, so if he wins, even with a solid second place Gingrich showing, what happens next?

Well we know that Ron Paul is in it for the long haul no matter how he places; his campaign has been setting up infrastructure in states far beyond SC, and the candidate himself has been campaigning in Nevada before the SC primary. Santorum is counting on a very strong showing in South Carolina but it's hard to know how much further his campaign can go with a 3rd or 4th place finish. Then again, it has been surprising that Rick Perry has still remained in the race- though I'd guess the odds are good that he'll decide to throw in the towel in the next week... I think.

Gingrich has said to news media that South Carolina is a must win state for him, so if he doesn't win, will he drop out? Can Romney and Gingrich carry their battle on into the other upcoming states, or has Gingrich bet all his campaign resources in SC? Seeing as how there are good odds that one or more other candidates will drop out after SC, will that change Gingrich's calculus? Certainly if Romney loses he will continue on, but it will be interesting to watch what the Gingrich campaign does if their candidate places second. The critical question they'll be asking: is there a path forward from here? Romney's lead in Florida is probably insurmountable if he wins in South Carolina, so in that case can Gingrich play in Nevada and beyond? The answer, I think, is yes, as long as it is a neck and neck SC finish and/or Perry and Santorum drop out. If not, it's hard to say.

Of course, a scenario is possible in which every candidate but Ron Paul and Mitt Romney drops out after South Carolina. That would also seriously change the dynamic of the race.

I won't attempt to answer these questions because I don't have information on campaign finance and infrastructure at my fingertips, but I can say this: the key to the importance of the SC GOP primary lies in how well Newt Gingrich can do as those returns come in Saturday night.