Are the Dems and Dem leaders on tilt?

As I wrote my last post, little did I know that once again Mr. Silver over at 538 has been echoing my sentiments, and putting things quite cleverly. I wandered over to his article after posting my own, and thought it was so relevant to what I had been saying that I needed to recommend it to you here, if you have some extra time. If if you don't have time, the gist is that Nate argues Democrats will run a serious risk if they let health care be watered down to nothing: "The risk is that, when we get to November, the base looks at the fact that significant progress has not been made on any of those core, defining issues, that the political and procedural hurdles are immense, that Democratic majorities will (at best) shrink, and that the party leadership seems nonchalant in good times and panicky in bad ones. And they'll conclude that the progressive party is incapable of making progress." And then they'll just give up.

Emphasis mine. This is also my fear, the main fear that drove the publishing of my last post. Democratic leadership and regular old congresspeople, if the base loses hope and gives up, it won't matter how many independents want to join your cause, you've lost the very force that defined you in the first place. Or, as I would argue, the very people who elected you, Mr. President, need this. They haven't had anything to be excited about in 8 long years of Bush, arguably longer, if they aren't shown something, anything, you really might lose them. Not all of them have as much patience as I have shown. And even now I'm really beginning to lose mine.

Health Care or Bust

It seems clear at this point that the Democratic majority will continue to make attempts at health care reform until... well, bust-- if only because the political ramifications of not successfully passing SOMETHING after 9 months of this ridiculousness is much greater than any backlash the public might have about the way the bill is passed or the contents of the bill. I for one think it's about damn time to stop the hedging and pass the damn thing, in the dirtiest way possible if necessary, and as liberal as possible, if possible.

At this point I believe that energizing the base is much much more important than trying to continue to reach out to the few independents and centrists who seem to still like the Democrats, primarily because it's the base that elects these people (they volunteer, they fund, they scream). Now, I know that's not the direction the Democrats have been going these days, they are trying to incorporate a large variety of views and people into the party to make it as large and powerful as possible (diluting as well, unfortunately), the big tent approach. At this point however, the Republicans seem to have managed to brand a relatively centrist approach to government as so liberal it's going to change the entire world, and end it, and the only good thing that might come out of it is that Jesus definitely will come back when the world has gone that much to shit. So at this point, what do Dems have to lose by appearing as dirty and liberal as Republicans have branded them? Hey Democrats, why not go ahead and "force health care down the throats of Americans," since no matter what you do, they'll think something is being forced somewhere, regardless of how pretty you try to make the process. The faster you can shove a bill up the Republicans' proverbial ass, the faster you can remove their talking points, and move on to letting America forget you ever brought up the subject in the first place. Which is where you want to be right now, trust me. America can remember again in a few years when the thing kicks in, and they realize they wanted it all along.

Nate Silver over at 538 has a terrific article suggesting, I think very correctly as I've pointed out here, that not just on health care, "what Obama has wound up with is an unpopular, liberal sheen on a relatively centrist agenda." Check out what he has to say, it was partly inspiration for this piece.

One development that seems to be worth watching is the increasing unease House Democrats have with passing the Senate version of the health care bill. As the unlikeliness of that vote increases, so does the unlikeliness of passing health care before the President's State of the Union Speech. There had been a vested interest in passing health care before the speech, so that the President could tangibly declare victory and move on. As the speech approaches don't be surprised to suddenly find Democrats at the cusp of a clear solution, one way or another.