Watch for a Huntsman surprise in NH

In my post yesterday I discussed Jon Huntsman's New Hampshire prospects with positive coverage, suggesting that he was most likely to achieve a third place finish in the Granite State. As polls and commentators are suggesting, Huntsman has the momentum in New Hampshire and this could result in a surprise finish in that state. As I pointed out yesterday, a victory of 15% or more would probably constitute a surprise finish in the eyes of the news media since Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich had been seen as running neck and neck with Huntsman.

But with some last minute polls (like this one) now showing Huntsman in the mid to high teens, he has a real chance at a spectacular finish: this would mean beating Ron Paul for second place in New Hampshire or coming close to it. Now I won't get too far into the odds between Paul and Huntsman, since I have been bullish regarding both of their campaigns in NH, but even now the most likely outcome in my opinion still would show Huntsman behind Paul. But these things, of course, are very hard to predict.

I think that both Paul's and Huntsman's campaigns could beat expectations in the contest tomorrow, but I'd guess that Huntsman very likely will. Remember, Huntsman needs at least a strong third place finish (15% or better) to have any significant chance of shaking up the race. Even if he does significantly better than this benchmark (which I think will happen), it's no guarantee that he will be able to play in South Carolina. Florida, the next state to vote, is a better option for Huntsman, particularly if he can split the vote with Paul and Gingrich who is also doing well there.

For this to Florida environment to happen, Gingrich probably needs to beat Santorum in NH and finish 1st or 2nd in SC. I think the chances of this scenario occurring are a little better than a coin flip, since I have repeatedly discussed my skepiticism regarding Santorum's chances in NH and SC. However, I'm not confident enough of that outcome to make any prediction; Santorum is showing more robustness than I expected so far- we'll just have to watch what happens.

This is certainly an exciting time for the Huntsman campaign. When the votes are counted tomorrow night, you'll know not to be too surprised by a Huntsman surprise.