People Worth Knowing: Tom Tancredo

Tom Tancredo is a former Colorado Congressperson who represented Colorado's 6th Congressional District, the rural areas stretching south of Denver. He came onto the national scene in a major way during the 2008 Republican Presidential Primary in which he took perhaps the strongest stances of any of the candidates on immigration issues.

Since then, he's used the clout he has gained as an advocate for an extremely strict conservative approach to immigration reform to keep his political profile nationally relevant, particularly to conservative voters. Many saw (and still see) Mr. Tancredo as a single issue politician; he has built his political career on making the illegal immigration issue of foremost importance to the Republican Party. He has advocated taking away any state-sponsored advantages for illegal immigrant peoples and those who support them, including severely penalizing so called "sanctuary cities" that have more liberal immigration policies, giving new powers to law enforcement to detain and remove illegal immigrants like the Arizona law, removing any in-state tuition benefits to illegal immigrants, and other such policies. In 2006, he published a book, In Mortal Danger: The Battle for America's Border and Security exposing what he felt were the major flaws in American immigration policy. Tancredo lost the Republican nomination, relatively handily, but he continued his immigration activism, and his support of highly right-wing values within the Republican Party.

His relevance today is in the 2010 Colorado Governor race. During the Republican primary for Governor, he delivered an ultimatum to the candidates: if the Republican nominee polled worse than the Democratic nominee after the primary, he would enter the race as a third party candidate under the American Constitution Party. Well, true to form, seeing major weaknesses in the Republican nominee, Dan Maes, Tancredo did enter the race.

Ordinarily a third party candidate would have almost no chance in a major state-wide election, but this is an uncommon election year. Several third party and independent candidates are polling very well in national races, and Colorado is no exception. Maes is suffering from several high-profile controversies, and Tancredo has surged in the polls, coming within striking distance of Democratic candidate John Hickenlooper. At this point it is clear that the race is between Hickenlooper and Tancredo; Maes is languishing near single digit support, but has not dropped out of the race for at least one obvious reason. A perhaps unintended consequence of Tancredo's surge is that the Republican Party in Colorado could be legally relegated to "minority party" status, (thanks to 538 for link) which might hurt Republican chances in the state in future elections. If Maes fails to gain at least 10 percent of the vote, this situation may occur.


Regardless of the secondary effect of Tancredo's running, his successful come-from-behind candidacy may tell us something about how major parties are not as impregnable as they often seem. If Tancredo wins, certainly expect him to be one of the most watched Governors in the nation, especially as he adds fuel to the fire of immigration fears. Whether or not his success is a result of Maes' failures, Tancredo's draw, or a new opening in the American electorate for a third party is unclear. But certainly be on the lookout for additional runs from third parties in the future, particularly look out for a possible third party "Tea Party" candidate in the 2012 election. I'll have an additional post on the chances of a new emergent third party in the near future.