News outlets are saying Bernie must win 59% of the remaining delegates to win the majority of Pledged Delegates- this is a roughly correct assessment. It will not be easy. The Sanders campaign has acknowledged that they will need Super (Unpledged) Delegates to agree to support their campaign in order to win.
For a quick review, Pledged Delegates are awarded based on the popular vote of each state, representing 85% of the total delegates to the Democratic convention. Super or Unpledged Delegates are party officials and represent 15% of the total delegates to the convention. Because the contest between Hillary and Bernie is so close, BOTH campaigns will almost certainly need the help of Super Delegates to clinch the nomination.
In the previous post, I made the case that Super Delegates behave as fail-safes in the event of a close contest (like this one) to prevent the Party from fracturing and give the nomination to the candidate with the mandate from the voters. In 2008 they did just that: despite Hillary Clinton being the Party insider (and originally endorsed by the large majority of Super Delegates), once Barack Obama pulled ahead Supers defected to his campaign. In summation of that previous post, here's what it would take (in two steps) for Bernie to earn Super Delegate support and replicate Barack Obama's 0.1% victory over Hillary in 2008. The first hurdle that he must overcome is to get a majority of pledged delegates. The second is far MORE difficult: earn the highest share of the popular vote. For more, please read the previous post.
Now that Wisconsin, Wyoming, and New York have voted, I did some deep number crunching to offer below the contest-by-contest targets (based on fivethirtyeight's demographic model) that Bernie MUST make in order to win the majority of Pledged Delegates and the majority of the popular vote.
How to read the following: CT 58% (32) +115,000
For the contest in Connecticut Bernie needs to win 32 delegates representing roughly 58% of the vote in order to be on track to get a majority of Pledged Delegates. To be on track to win the popular vote he must get 115,000 MORE votes than Hillary in that state.
CT 58% (32) +115,000
DE 55% (11) +29,000
*MD 51% (48) +65,000
*PA 58% (110) +390,000
RI 62% (15) +67,000
*IN 61% (50) +210,000
GU
57% (4) Caucus**
*WV 67% (19) +107,000
*KY 58% (32) +115,000
*KY 58% (32) +115,000
OR 69% (42) +252,000
VI
57% (4) Caucus**
*PR 57% (34) Caucus**
CA 58% (275) +934,000
MT 71% (15) +92,000
*NJ 55% (70) +197,000
NM 61% (21) +86,000
SD 69% (14) +80,000
ND 70% (13) Caucus**
DC 46%
(9) -4,000
Total: 58.43% (818) Delegates +2,735,895 Popular Votes
*Key contests that I believe to be particularly unlikely to render the accompanying result.
**The remaining caucuses have negligible numbers of votes remaining, due to the low turnout at caucus sites.
The first five contests all take place this Tuesday (tomorrow) and represent about a quarter of the remaining delegates available, and about a quarter of the delegates Bernie would need to win. If Bernie loses all or most of them, his chances of winning the majority of pledged delegates becomes very slim indeed, perhaps needing a 30+ point victory in California or some other miracle to put him back on track. In fact, using this model, the only contest Bernie can "afford to lose" is the District of Columbia.
Remember: Bernie Sanders is undoubtedly favored in several of the remaining states- particularly out west: the Dakotas, Montana and Oregon. But at this point he needs to win those states by landslide margins in addition to netting the other wins to be on track for the nomination. As far as this Tuesday is concerned, it will not be enough to squeak out wins in Connecticut or Rhode Island while major Delegate hauls in Pennsylvania go for Hillary. Anything other than significant wins (except in Maryland) this Tuesday will be a strong signal that the support for Bernie is simply not high enough in most of the bluest of blue states. If so, it would undermine Bernie's central argument that once northern blue states start voting, he'll do much better.
Without significant wins tomorrow, every win in the remaining contests can constitute a moral victory for his campaign, but it will almost certainly not be enough to claim a mandate from the voters.
Still, Bernie has made it clear that he will continue to fight until the final votes are cast, particularly in California where he is hoping for a moral victory. His influence at the convention could be relative to how well he performs in the remaining states, and the movement that he started may win significant concessions in the official Democratic Party Platform which will be developed at the convention. Even if Bernie is eliminated as a viable contender for the mandate from voters, he could have tremendous sway in the Democratic Party- especially if his energized base continue to be motivated to vote for him. The contest of ideas will go on far past this contest of personalities. Voting will be a part of that, but for those who are interested in keeping the Bernie or Birdie movement alive, the fight may soon have to shift away from the Democratic Nomination.
Total: 58.43% (818) Delegates +2,735,895 Popular Votes
**The remaining caucuses have negligible numbers of votes remaining, due to the low turnout at caucus sites.
The first five contests all take place this Tuesday (tomorrow) and represent about a quarter of the remaining delegates available, and about a quarter of the delegates Bernie would need to win. If Bernie loses all or most of them, his chances of winning the majority of pledged delegates becomes very slim indeed, perhaps needing a 30+ point victory in California or some other miracle to put him back on track. In fact, using this model, the only contest Bernie can "afford to lose" is the District of Columbia.
Remember: Bernie Sanders is undoubtedly favored in several of the remaining states- particularly out west: the Dakotas, Montana and Oregon. But at this point he needs to win those states by landslide margins in addition to netting the other wins to be on track for the nomination. As far as this Tuesday is concerned, it will not be enough to squeak out wins in Connecticut or Rhode Island while major Delegate hauls in Pennsylvania go for Hillary. Anything other than significant wins (except in Maryland) this Tuesday will be a strong signal that the support for Bernie is simply not high enough in most of the bluest of blue states. If so, it would undermine Bernie's central argument that once northern blue states start voting, he'll do much better.
Without significant wins tomorrow, every win in the remaining contests can constitute a moral victory for his campaign, but it will almost certainly not be enough to claim a mandate from the voters.
Still, Bernie has made it clear that he will continue to fight until the final votes are cast, particularly in California where he is hoping for a moral victory. His influence at the convention could be relative to how well he performs in the remaining states, and the movement that he started may win significant concessions in the official Democratic Party Platform which will be developed at the convention. Even if Bernie is eliminated as a viable contender for the mandate from voters, he could have tremendous sway in the Democratic Party- especially if his energized base continue to be motivated to vote for him. The contest of ideas will go on far past this contest of personalities. Voting will be a part of that, but for those who are interested in keeping the Bernie or Birdie movement alive, the fight may soon have to shift away from the Democratic Nomination.
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