The Gingrich shift has come

The tactical movement that I was talking about in last night's post seems to have arrived. Gingrich's entreaties to the electorate appear to have been successful and voters are now tactically coalescing around his candidacy to defeat Mitt Romney. Or maybe they love him now.

A couple events occurred today that have changed the conventional wisdom regarding the SC primary. First, Rick Perry has dropped out of the race, endorsing Newt Gingrich. While this might not seem to directly help Gingrich's campaign (Perry wasn't commanding much support anyway), it does deliver a blow to Santorum's floundering candidacy, as he struggles for legitimacy against Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Second, in several polls released today, Gingrich's support has jumped 10 points, exactly the margin of Romney's former polling lead. That ties him with Romney and brings the momentum solidly into his camp.

This is similar to what we saw in both Iowa and New Hampshire, with the final week to the vote showing a sudden rise in support for one specific candidate. In New Hampshire, that was Jon Huntsman, although his solid third place finish wasn't enough to keep his campaign going. In Iowa, however, voters seemed to be behaving tactically, rallying around the one conservative alternative to Mitt Romney-- they picked Santorum while Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry saw their chances weaken significantly.

Like in Iowa, the Gingrich rise in SC has corresponded to a drop in polling for the other 'mainstream' candidates- this time, Santorum and Perry and Romney- rather than a sudden disappearance of undecided/other voters. I won't include Ron Paul because his numbers were relatively steady in Iowa and now in SC as well. Let's take a look at the others.


Rounded average of 5 polls released Monday-Wednesday according to RCP:

Romney: 34%, Gingrich: 22%, Santorum: 15%, Perry: 5%, Undecided: 10%

Rounded average of 4 polls released today:

Romney: 31%, Gingrich: 32%, Santorum: 12%, Perry: 4% Undecided: 8%


Needless to say, if this trend continues in the next two days, and if undecideds break for Gingrich rather than Romney, Gingrich will probably win the upcoming Saturday primary, especially if Perry voters turn to Gingrich. However, if undecideds break for Romney, Gingrich's momentum probably isn't enough. A lot may hinge on the debate tonight, which will focus on the last four candidates standing. Much attention will be concentrated on Gingrich's sudden rise; the other candidates will probably be desperate to bring Gingrich down, so the attacks may focus away from Romney. If Gingrich can hold his own, there are a lot of ads on the SC airwaves tearing Romney down, mainly from his Super PAC,


Overall, this is great news for Gingrich. We'll see if he can hold, or improve on his position in the next two days. Either way it looks like he'll do well enough, even if Romney wins by a slim margin, to continue on past SC. Santorum maybe not so much. Ron Paul should also be celebrating this development. His numbers are still impressive relative to what they have been in SC, and a three-person race is one that will probably elevate his profile by lowering the winning threshold in upcoming states. Moreover, some states have a winner take all delegate process, but only if one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, otherwise it's proportional. A three way split would allow Paul to rack up more delegates while holding out for a chance for a brokered convention, where he could really exercise his clout.