Are you still watching Santorum?

Remember way back when? You know about a month ago when I put out my guide to the Republican Nomination, 2012? That was way back when Herman Cain was still a candidate. Like years ago or something. Ancient history. Anyway...
In it I outlined three Republican candidates to make sure to keep an eye on. Well we already know that one of those mentioned has been worth keeping an eye on, and I've been doing it here: Ron Paul, the most important of those mentioned, is living up to expectations. He's been a frequent topic of this blog, and the implications of his candidacy and voters have been well fleshed out in at least three recent posts. 

But this blogger has also been patiently waiting to see if one of the two other special candidates mentioned would suddenly appear out of the woodwork. It is looking now, and I can feel triumphant in saying this, that Rick Santorum, is having a very late, last minute surge.

It wasn't a farfetched prediction, but it's nice to have one's opinions validated when one is just an ammeter political handicapper. For those of you who have not been watching Santorum, the background and analysis I printed a month ago still works now, so I'll just reprint it here for your (but mainly my) amusement. Or you can skip down to the meat of it.

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Rick Santorum- If the nomination truly is a game of musical chairs, this guy's next in line after Gingrich. Although he tends to skew a touch too right on social issues and (perhaps) a touch too left on economic for the tea-party-leaning-maybe-more-libertarian GOP base these days, to the casual observer, Santorum sits next to Gingrich and Perry regarding his ideological substance, making him a serious "last resort" conservative "anti-Romney" contender if Gingrich falls apart in the next few weeks. He's run a good campaign in Iowa, although he's largely under the radar elsewhere, and he's a solid debater with youthful energy and almost unparallelled anti- abortion/gay marriage credentials that might be appealing to a block of the electorate, particularly in socially conservative Iowa. He's a stronger candidate than the polls have shown, which I think is due to the lack of attention paid to him in the mainstream media. Therefore, all he needs is a breakout win or surprising finish in Iowa to make him viable, again, assuming Gingrich is somewhat out of the picture.

What to watch:
Iowa. Santorum only has one hand to play and it's here. His resources are thin, but he's the only candidate to have visited all 99 counties in Iowa, so he's clearly playing to win. A strong debate performance from him alongside some Gingrich scandal would be enough to give him the viability edge that Iowa caucus-goers would need to commit their support to him. Of course, after that, he may not have the staying-power to go much further; if it were to happen, a last-minute Santorum rise could seal the deal for Mitt Romney.

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Here are the averages (for four select candidates) of three recent Iowa pollsters about 10 days ago:

Paul: 22%, Romney: 21%, Gingrich: 15%, Santorum: 8%

And here are those same three pollsters averaged for this week:

Paul: 21%, Romney: 20%, Gingrich: 14% Santorum: 13%

What a difference five points can make. As you can see, there's really only one place in the Iowa top tier with significant last-minute movement, and its with the Santorum campaign. This jump is readily apparent on the RCP aggregate poll graph for Iowa. As Gingrich campaign has weakened, and as conservatives in Iowa seek to rally around a central non-Romney non-Paul candidate, recent polls are pointing toward Santorum being the choice for many Iowans, particularly those who are concerned with social issues. This momentum could build, as Bachmann and Perry supporters look to support the candidate most likely to win Iowa- and jump on the Santorum bandwagon. Santorum, Bachmann and Perry all have very similar views, and outside hardcore supporters, it's possible many Iowa conservatives will consider it a victory if any of the three manages to coalesce voters for a surprise. This is, of course, what Santorum hopes will happen, especially since getting the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, an important voice in the Iowa social conservative community. We'll just have to see if this is a temporary spike, or a lasting surge- if it is lasting, it will likely be at the expense of Bachmann, Perry, and even Gingrich.

A Santorum upset would be a great media generator, even if he doesn't get first or second, since his rise would be seen as sudden and potentially exciting. But after Iowa, there's not much more to be said for what Santorum can do. New Hampshire is just too much a Romney stronghold to be within his grasp, and Santorum has been counting on an all-or-nothing Iowa gambit, with little resources or campaign in place in any other state. What I said a month ago about Santorum's prospects are still true: a Santorum surge that puts him in a surprising position in Iowa is only likely to put Romney in a better position further along.

That is unless he captures Iowa with a resounding victory; that would be a real surprise!

So who knows; strange things happen in primaries, and this nomination process has been stranger than most. If Santorum manages to trounce Bachmann and Perry in Iowa and (one or both) drop out and endorse him, the situation could change dramatically. If voters truly are committed to defeating Romney at all costs and Santorum seems more viable than Gingrich coming into South Carolina, he has a real chance at winning the nomination, something that was virtually unthinkable just a couple of weeks ago.

Regardless of how the surge plays out, Santorum will continue to be worth keeping a close eye on, at least through Iowa and immediately afterward. His presence is changing the dynamic- in a dynamic way- and to observers like me, that's always a lot of fun.