Palin's Gunna Run

I'm going to go ahead and call it before it happens: Sarah Palin, Republican Vice Presidential nominee from 2008 is planning a run for President, and it'll almost certainly be for 2012. Begin mentally preparing yourself for the possibility of America having another glass ceiling shattered : an Alaskan in the White House.

The buzz around Palin has been growing for months, since she quit her job as Governor of Alaska and got a new job going on book tours in the Lower 48, promoting her two books (that's right, two in two years!). Her profile increased even more dramatically with the beginning of the Tea Party, to which, within weeks, Palin had clearly attached herself. Now she is seen by many to be the defacto leader of the Tea Party Movement. Wow that was fast. And finally, she made herself quite well known in the Midterms of 2010, campaigning across the country for (almost exclusively) Tea Party-backed candidates and helping most of them win election. Some of these candidates were picked and singled out by Palin: in almost any state, an endorsement from Palin practically ensured victory in a Republican Primary.

As her profile has grown, so has her power, her number of friends, and the number of those indebted to her for their election fortunes. This was no accident by Sarah Palin, it was a part of a calculated move probably going all the way back to 2008, as it became clear that she would lose to then Senator Barack Obama- she likely decided then that she would carefully sow the seeds of her own power base. She's consistently showered the sunshine of her personality down on the media, primarily Fox News where she is employed as a commentator, and the Tea Party movement has added the final saturation needed for the seeds of her candidacy to grow and flourish.

And before you shrug let me point out: she's no joke either. Although her negatives remain notably high amongst the American public as a whole (52% unfavorability); amongst Republicans she has high favorability, around 80%. Polls of possible Republican contenders for 2012 have consistently shown her either leading the pack or up close and personal with Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich all of whom are polling between 10 and 20%. Now certainly she's not the clear front runner like Clinton was in 2007, but her star power is hard to match. The media LOVES them some Palin, she's pretty, young, dynamic, controversial... the shear weight of her media exposure will be nearly impossible for any other prospective candidate to overcome. Why else might Mike Huckabee host his own show on Fox News?


Palin is notorious at this point for being a flagrant tease, so many in the media feel uncomfortable calling her likelihood of running. It's true that she'd stand a good and maybe better chance in 2016 when an incumbent isn't on the ticket, but I think there's something to be said for the current energy in the Tea Party movement right now, and Palin can capitalize on that. Other than the fact that she is currently making millions, I can't find a good reason for her NOT to run in 2012, it might be her best shot. And I will go ahead and say that she's probably the favorite right now to capture the nomination.

I think the question now is more about when she'll declare, not whether.