(11/2) Election Forecasts 2010: House

This will represent my final election projection of the 2010 Midterms, and I'll make it brief.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats will likely lose between 30 and 80 seats. It will either be deafening or reasonably significant, but either way, Dems are in for it. I'm not going to make specific number projections because there just isn't enough robust polling on which to make accurate predictions. Generic House Ballots range from R+15 to R+0 and it's probably somewhere in between. I think most pollsters are beginning to settle on in between 50 and 70 seats lost for the Democrats. Which, if true, would make this the most significant turnover in 100 years.  

I like watching NC races for many reasons, so I want to direct your attention to three different contests in NC that I think will represent indicator contests for what kind of gains Republicans are probably going to make in the House. We'll begin to know what these look like starting at 7:30 when polls close. I make these predictions partially with the help of Fivethirtyeight's own House indicators.

In NC-02 (Raleigh suburbs and east), Incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge is facing what I consider to be a poor Republican opponent and a Libertarian. Recent polling has Republican Renee Ellmers up, but I find a win by her to be unlikely. If Ellmers wins by anything but the slimmest of margins, expect 55+ gains in the House by Republicans. I think Etheridge has about a 65% chance of victory.

In NC-11 (Mountains), Incumbent Democrat Heath Shuler is facing what I consider to be a very generic and relatively inexperienced opponent. If Jeff Miller were to squeak out a win, expect 70+ gains in the House by Republicans. I think Shuler has about an 80% chance of victory 

And in NC-04 (Durham, Chapel Hill and west Raleigh), Incumbent Democrat David Price is facing what I consider to be a circumstantially spirited campaign by (C4L endorsed) William Lawson. But if Lawson were to overturn this formidable Incumbent, expect total chaos in the House, upwards of 80 seat turnover. I think Price has about a 95% chance of victory. If all three of these races go south for Dems, we could be looking at up to 100 seats changing hands.

Now if none of these Incumbents is taken out, Republicans could still be on their way to a strong finish, but I expect it to be under 55 seats. Remember, I'm not a professional, and I wouldn't bet anything substantial on any of what I have written above.